How Often Does Microsoft Launch New Xbox Consoles?

Earlier this year, Microsoft announced Project Helix, the codename for its next home console. Very little has been revealed so far, but we know that rumors about the next Xbox being able to play console and PC games are true. It’s also been reported that future Xbox tech might let you digitize physical games, which could make the platform more desirable following Sony’s incredibly controversial decision to ditch physical PlayStation games starting in 2028.

While we don’t know when the next Xbox will debut, or even when we’ll learn its actual name, we can make some educated guesses based on precedent. Below are all of the Xbox console release dates so far, as well as the length of time between them:

• Xbox: November 15, 2001
• Xbox 360: November 22, 2005 (four years, seven days)
• Xbox One: November 22, 2013 (eight years)
• Xbox Series X|S: November 10, 2020 (seven years, 11 months, 19 days)

We’re now a little more than five-and-a-half years into the Xbox Series X|S era, which might put us over two years away from a new console if you judge by recent history alone. However, there are a lot of other factors to take into account, such as the current RAM crisis driven by AI data centers and the dire state of the Xbox brand.

To start, every major Xbox console release to date has been in November. That shouldn’t be surprising considering its proximity to the holiday season, so while it doesn’t guarantee a November release, there’s also no reason for Microsoft to change that tradition. Following the pattern of previous releases would suggest a November 2028 launch for Project Helix if we stick with our assumption of a seven-year cycle. That seems realistic, but it also would mean a much longer window between the initial reveal and the release date than last time.

The Xbox Series X was announced under the codename Project Scarlet in June 2019, six months before the console’s official name and design were revealed. If Project Helix were to follow that timeline, its March 2026 codename reveal would indicate a full announcement this fall and a release approximately one year later in fall 2027.

That seems pretty soon, especially given the global RAM shortage that’s driven up prices to the point of overshadowing other highly anticipated gaming hardware releases like the Steam Machine. But while current events may impact its plans, it makes sense why Xbox would want to get a new console out sooner rather than later.

The Xbox Series X|S was destined to have a rough start launching in the middle of a pandemic, but it was also hampered by a variety of missteps. Wanting to compete with PlayStation’s critically and commercially successful first-party library, Microsoft purchased various studios, including multibillion-dollar buyouts of ZeniMax Media and Activision Blizzard. That gave it ownership over huge chunks of IP, like Fallout and Call of Duty, and new games would join the massive Xbox Game Pass library on release day.

Unfortunately for Microsoft, the acquisitions failed to manifest more successful output, with games like Bethesda’s long-anticipated Starfield underwhelming many gamers. The Series S itself also caused issues for developers, as the underpowered hardware made it hard to implement demanding features in new games and ports. For a while, Game Pass was the company’s big selling point, but price hikes last year caused the service to lose millions of subscribers.

There was also the “This Is an Xbox” marketing campaign, intended to show consumers all the places they could play Xbox games. What it didn’t do was give consumers a reason to spend money on a console when their smart TVs and smartphones could be used as an Xbox. It’s no coincidence that the slogan was dropped soon after longtime CEO Phil Spencer’s sudden retirement and succession by Asha Sharma. Now, Xbox is in the midst of a massive restructuring that includes layoffs and selling studios because, as Sharma told Fortune, “we simply spread ourselves too thin.” The ongoing changes may push back Project Helix’s release, but a new console would give Xbox a chance to start fresh. At the very least, distance from the Xbox Series X|S era couldn’t hurt.