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What makes this shortage different from previous memory cycles is supplier behaviour. Gogia pointed out that memory vendors are locking in multi-year agreements, committing future HBM output well in advance — a pattern inconsistent with cyclical markets. “This is how a strategic resource market behaves when demand visibility is high, and margins are concentrated in a specific segment,” he said.
IDC, in a February analysis, projected that 2026 DRAM and NAND supply growth would come in at 16% and 17% year-on-year, respectively, well below historical norms, a consequence of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron reallocating cleanroom capacity toward higher-margin AI products.
Enterprise buyers caught in the crossfire
That capacity reallocation is now working its way through enterprise procurement, creating what Gogia described as a two-tier market: hyperscalers and sovereign-scale buyers who secure capacity early, and enterprises that operate on delayed access, reduced configuration flexibility, and higher costs. “Supply is not just sold. It is reserved ahead of time,” he said.
